Three simple things Sun should do to win
This post was also published in InfoWorld.The industry trends around Linux, x86 processors, and scripting languages are clear. Unfortunately, Sun is swimming against the tide on all three of these trends, in fear that it could cannibalize its existing business. Following is a simple, three step strategy for Sun to swim WITH the tide, while still maintaining its revenue.
#1 - Migrate Solaris to Linux
Operating systems are a commodity. The Unix wars are over, and they have been won by Linux. IBM is migrating AIX to Linux. Digital Unix is dead. SGI Irix is dead. HP-UX is dead. Sun should announce a long term strategy of moving to Linux and start migrating Solaris features like DTRace to Linux, just like IBM contributed SMP and journaling code to Linux. Sun is unique in that it has a full Unix System V license from AT&T, so it can sell an indemnified Linux.
Proof point: IBM has a long term strategy of migrating AIX to Linux, and it has not cannibalized AIX/Power sales.
#2 - Migrate SPARC to Opteron
Processors are a commodity. Sun should provide binary translation so that customers can easily move their applications from Solaris SPARC to Solaris x86. A decent binary translator will run SPARC machine code on an Opteron almost as fast as anything on the SPARC roadmap. And native Opteron code will scream compared to SPARCs. Either Sun can provide this migration to their Galaxy Opteron servers, or Dell and HP will continue their "Visine" customer programs where they migrate customer Solaris boxes to commodity Linux x86 boxes. And with its Fujitsu SPARC partnership, Sun can continue to extract revenue from SPARC on the very high end.
Proof point: IBM has a very strong, coherent Linux/x86 strategy and it has not cannibalized AIX/Power sales.
Proof point: Sun has successfully made such a transition from Motorola 68K to SPARC. Apple has has successfully made such a transition from Motorola 68K to Power to Intel.
#3 - Endorse LAMP and integrate it with Java
Java is great on the back-end, but LAMP is great on the web tier (as Google, Amazon, Yahoo!, Flickr, MySpace, Friendster, etc. have shown). Sun should endorse PHP and go one step forward and make sure the "P" languages run great on the JVM by open sourcing Java. Sun doesn't make much money on Java anyways.
Proof point: IBM and Oracle have strongly both endorsed PHP into their architectures and it has not cannibalized their Java middleware sales.
So there you have it. Three simple things Sun can do which would give it a coherent strategy relative to industry trends. Sun could then focus its energy on finding new revenue streams rather than protecting declining revenue streams.